WORLD FOREX: Dollar Down Vs Yen But Jobs Data Pose Upside Risk

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The dollar fell against the yen in Asia Friday as Japanese exporters sold the currency to settle accounts. But the decline was limited ahead of key U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day.
Trading was subdued in Asia because most short-term-focused investors stood on the sidelines ahead of the 1330 GMT jobs data, which traders said would be a watershed for the greenback.
"Nonfarm payrolls will be crucial," said Calvin Tse, a strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Traders said the result is likely to surprise to upside, as recent U.S. economic data have beaten market expectations.
The non-farm payrolls number is forecast to increase by 144,000 in November from October, when it climbed by 151,000. The jobless rate, meanwhile, may stand unchanged at 9.6%, according to a Dow Jones poll of economists.
A strong jobs number would lead investors to expect the Federal Reserve to scale back its latest quantitative easing measures, and so is a definite positive for the U.S. currency, they said.
Barclays Capital senior Japan strategist Masafumi Yamamoto is one of many who expect a positive surprise, forecasting a 170,000 increase and a 9.5% jobless rate. If this view is correct, the dollar may rise to Y84.50, he said.
As of 0450 GMT, the U.S. unit was at Y83.70 from Y83.86 overnight in New York. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.262 from 80.203.
Meanwhile, the euro was again weaker against its U.S. and Japanese counterparts. It was at $1.3203 from $1.3225 and Y110.52 from Y110.95.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Thursday that cheap money will continue to be easily available. His remarks were in line with expectations, but weren't enough to give the euro a sustained boost, dealers said.
They said there are no quick solutions to the ongoing European debt concerns, and that will keep weighing on the common currency for some time. The problem may even undermine investor confidence in the euro if the situation keeps worsening, dealers said.
"What happens next is a great concern to investors, as the currency union increasingly looks less sustainable over the long term," said Stephen Hull, a senior strategist at Morgan Stanley.
The house says the best way to play a weak euro is to buy the safe-haven Swiss franc. As of 0450 GMT, the euro was CHF1.3126, and Morgan Stanley targets CHF1.2800 in the short term.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 23:50 EST / 0450 GMT 
 
                         Latest     Previous   %Chg   Daily   Daily    %Chg 
                                    2150 GMT          High    Low      12/31 
 
USD/JPY Yen              83.69-70   83.86-88   -0.20  83.89   83.68   -10.09 
EUR/USD Euro             1.3201-05  1.3220-22  -0.14  1.3222  1.3194   -7.79 
GBP/USD Sterling         1.5591-96  1.5603-06  -0.08  1.5605  1.5582   -3.54 
USD/CHF Swiss Franc      0.9939-44  0.9921-29  +0.18  0.9950  0.9922   -4.01 
USD/CAD Canadian Dlr     1.0037-39  1.0029-32  +0.08  1.0044  1.0025   -4.53 
AUD/USD Australian Dlr   0.9753-58  0.9761-66  -0.08  0.9774  0.9741   +8.57 
NZD/USD New Zealand Dlr  0.7553-63  0.7549-59  +0.05  0.7564  0.7547   +4.09 
EUR/JPY Yen              110.47-53  110.86-91  -0.35  110.87  110.45  -17.10 
 
 

NFA publishes guide for retail forex traders

December 2, Chicago - National Futures Association (NFA) announced today that it has published a revised edition of its popular investor education booklet for consumers interested in the retail off-exchange foreign currency (forex) market. The revised publication, now entitled "Trading Forex: What Investors Need to Know", describes how the retail forex market operates, the risks involved in trading forex and how the market is regulated. The guide also includes a glossary of terms.

"We revised the publication to reflect the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's retail forex rules, which became effective on October 18," says NFA's Director of Communications and Education Larry Dyekman. "Among other things, the rules now require any retail forex introducing broker, money manager or pool operator to register with the CFTC and become Members of NFA. We believe that consumers should learn as much as they can about the market and how it is regulated before opening a forex trading account."

Single copies of the guide will be offered free of charge to the investing public. Individuals may order a free copy of the publication by calling NFA's Information Center at 312-781-1410 or 800-621-3570 or by emailing NFA at information@nfa.futures.org.

Individuals also have the option of viewing and printing the publication by downloading it from the Investor Information section of NFA's website (www.nfa.futures.org).

NFA is the premier independent provider of innovative and efficient regulatory programs that safeguard the integrity of the futures markets.

FOREX-Euro inches up

 TOKYO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The euro's rebound from a 2-½ month low stalled on Friday, though it retained most gains made after talk of European Central Bank buying of euro zone periphery debt helped knock down those yields.

The immediate focus of the market moved to U.S. payrolls data later in the day, with a surprisingly strong U.S. housing number adding to budding optimism on the U.S. economy.

The euro nestled at $1.3220 EUR=, little changed on the day and floating well above a 2-½ month low of $1.2969 plumbed on Tuesday in the wake of massive selling in euro zone periphery government bonds.

"I suspect the euro has bottomed out in the near term and will test $1.33-34," said a trader at a Japanese brokerage house.

Its 100-day moving average, at around $1.3327, is seen as the next resistance level. More important resistance lurks in the $1.3334-64 area, its August peak and a 38.2 percent retracement of its June-November rally.

Traders said the ECB was buying Portuguese and Irish debt on Thursday, calming investor panic over euro zone debt for now, helping the single currency.

The sharp fall in the yields of Spanish, Portuguese and other countries' bonds offset initial disappointment after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet did not explicitly commit the bank to ramping up bond buying.

As widely expected, the ECB extended nonstandard provisions, committing to provide unlimited one-week, one-month and three-month funding for vulnerable banks until at least April.